Martingale Systems

Martingale systems come in different guises and the simplest one is in the form of Doubling up the stakes after a loss. The Theory behind such staking plans are to recoup losses when a winner occurs but there is so much risk involved and ultimately Ruin for the bettor in the end, the longer the use of such a rapid increase in stakes the more certain the bettor is of being ruined.

Eventually a losing run WILL occur which will bust the bank or require such a vast stake that even if the bettor had the funds for one more bet, the likelihood of actually getting the bet on would be small, Casinos have limits and bookmakers have limits as well. Stakes are doubled after each losing bet thus….
 

Bet 1

Bet 2

Bet 3

Bet 4

Bet 5

Bet 6

Bet 7

Bet 8

Bet 9

Bet 10

1

2

4

8

16

32

64

128

256

512


If we look at backing Even money chances we can see from the Losing Run table that a run of 8 losers is Rare, but the longer one plays with Martingale Systems the more certain a losing run of at least 8 straight losers will occur. It’s not a case of IF, it’s a question of WHEN, which is why Casinos and Bookmakers love this type of staking formula.

Take a look at the Expected LosingRun Table especially for the Even money shots.

Do some experiments for yourself either with a Coin or Dice or open a Spreadsheet and use the Random number generator to put together a sample.

The Sample size is very important, if you put together a sample of 10 results by flipping a coin and taking Heads as being a winner and Tails being a loser, it is highly unlikely that you will encounter all losers/tails.

But as the Sample size increases, say 100 results you encounter an odd situation which is that the bigger the sample the more accurate the Probability will be (Heads verses Tails getting ever closer to 50% each) but actual numbers tend to get wilder, longer sequences of either all Heads or Tails will show up or a block of results with a bias towards one particular result which is then corrected at some point in the sample.

 Martingale systems like the basic one here are highly dangerous and should be avoided.



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