Losing Run

The losing run has been the bane of Punters since betting began, it cannot be avoided and can be soul destroying at times.

When I first began betting I didn't really understand what the odds were telling me, I understood the winning side (how much I could win and the percentages) but not the down side. The times when nothing goes right and a winner is hard to come by.

The first bad sequence was a painful and costly experience, confidence was at an all time low and the betting bank was down to the last few bets.

Understanding what the odds are telling the backer can be of great benefit in two ways, one is to form a betting bank that reflects your style of betting and the odds range in which you work, the other benefit is knowing the likely adverse runs that can/will come around at some point.

Below is a table of expected losing runs given the average odds played.

Expected Losing Runs

ODDS

FREQUENT

PIVOTAL POINT

RARE

EVENS

1

5

8

2/1

2

7

12

3/1

3

10

16

4/1

4

12

20

5/1

5

14

24

6/1

6

17

28

7/1

7

19

32

8/1

8

22

36

10/1

9

24

40


The Table assumes selections are soundly based, for instance if a backer was betting indiscriminately on favourites across the card, many short priced runners can be beaten on a given day, the table would be of little use because many favourites are at false prices and do not reflect their actual chance of winning the race.

I've named 3 types of bad results, Frequent, Pivotal and Rare, the Frequent set of losers is self explanatory, the rare sequence of losers will come along at some point and we must plan for extremes which then covers most if not all eventualities. The Pivotal point can act as a warning sign, a reminder to keep a close eye on all the factors to do with betting, for instance an obvious one is a change in the weather where changes in forecast going cause the form to be unreliable to some degree.

The Table is also handy for testing staking plans, take a look at the Martingaleformula to see how the Table can test methods of Staking and what they entail.

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