Evidence is the key in horse racing past performance. Each time a horse takes to the track it leaves clues, even a poor run can provide important information. Data such as time of year,
National Hunt RacecoursesThe Distanceand the going to name just a few all bare relevance in assessing a horse’s credentials.
Here is a list of all Irish Racecoursesset out in a basic format yet showing that as well as the UK, the courses of Ireland provide some of the most diverse tracks in the world.
I recently viewed a race where there was a 3/1 favourite. I had no selection in the race myself but was amazed that the horse in question was given such a position in the betting market - the race was to be run on good to soft ground but the horse’s past performance on good to soft ground was 0 for 6.
The form ratings I use had the horse rated best on good ground with a rating of 95. Its best rating on good to soft was 89, 6lbs lower, which is not far off its best but, on the days racing surface it seemed that one horse at least would beat it to the winning post on 6 occasions.
None of the defeats were in a close finish i.e. in a photo or less than a length. The horse was unplaced in the race and went straight into my note book as a possible value bet when back on its favoured ground.
I think what swayed the punters and many paper tipsters was the bare Racing Form which on the face of it seemed very good, having won its last race well and had previously been placed on good to soft ground but as said, not in a close finish.
As an example, let’s say the horse was 0 for 2 on good to soft ground with the same ratings as given above, it would be wise to give less significance with only 2 runs under its belt on the surface although doubts would remain and at the price, it would not tempt me.
Horse racing past performance has to be evaluated critically.
Information from Horse Racing Records The following example shows how it’s wise to bring information together as and when necessary:
A horse’s career record to date (going wise) was on good to firm ground with 1 win from 4 (103) starts, 0 for 4 (101) on good ground and 1 for 6 (104) on good to soft ground. The figures in brackets are the ratings I use.
The days going was forecast as Good, the horse has won on good to firm and good to soft ground, common sense and the ratings tell us to group all the performances together giving a profile of 2 wins from 14 races, a 14% strike rate.
As well as the going the Horse Racing Distance factor needs analysing.
We then have to consider whether the horse in question will handle the Course characteristics, is the horse a long striding galloper or a quick nippy type who handles sharp turning tracks