Horse Racing Odds

The Value Chart

The Value Chart is a simple way of estimating Horse Racing Odds.

The idea behind this simple chart is to introduce a meaning to the actual odds themselves.

A fair few times, I have come across people who ask for a price about one of their fancies for a race and are impressed that their selection is quoted at 5/1, now winning 5 times your stake sounds pretty enticing but there is little or no thought given to the horse racing odds in the context of the race.

There is a very simple test to put that 5/1 quote into some kind of context, the Value Chart given below is a simple and yet very effective way of forming a more balanced view of what horse racing odds within the context of a race means.

Looking at the various websites, each race is given individual comments on the likely out come of the race, the main fancies and those runners likely to be dangerous to the fancied selection, looking at various racing sites, it only takes 10 or so minutes to see how competitive a race is just from the summary.

Comments like “is strongly fancied to win this” or “in a competitive race we just side with” etc, etc, used alongside the betting forecast, you can quickly come to a rough but excellent step forward in putting a price offered into context within the race.

Considering the forecast price alongside the race comments, that 5/1 shot will either be one of 3 types, a value price, a fair price or a short price.

1.5

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

9

+3.5

8

+2

7

+0.5

6

-1

+2

+8

5

-2.5

+5

4

-4

-2

+2

+6

3

-4

-1

+2

+5

2

-4

-2

+2

+4

+6

+8

+10

1

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

From the top row reading across we have the prices given in decimal form, 1.5 is a 1/2 on in fractional form, 2 = an Even money shot.

The column on the left most side is the chance given to a selection out of 10, think of it this way, imagine you could have a race run 10 times over with exactly the same conditions for each runner for all the 10 races?

The question is, how many times out of the 10 races do you think your selection would win?

If you came to the conclusion that you could see your selection winning 5 out of the 10 races, you would have to take a price bigger than Even money (decimal 2) to turn over a profit in the long term.

This is a basic form of the chart and you can easily make a price guide with more detailed odds to suit your style.

Putting horse racing odds into some kind of context as the simple table above does, is a massive step forward and will enhance your betting enormously.



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