The Fibonacci Staking Plan is a close relative to the Martingale method where stakes rise until a winner is found.

A first sight this method of staking seems fairly reasonable and as long as winners turn up with frequency and at a decent sort of price the plan functions well, but of course at some point a losing streak will crop up and the stakes rise sharply as the losing run continues.

The Fibonacci Staking Plan works like this, your first stake is 1 point, if if loses, your next stake is also 1 point and if this also loses, the Fibonacci Staking Plan kicks in.

The 3rd Stake is found by adding the last 2 digits (stakes) together, so we have 1 + 1 = 2, if a winner is found the coup is complete and you start again with 1 point but if that 3rd bet is also a loser we carry on by adding the last 2 stakes together to find our 4th stake, so we have 1 + 2 = 3, our 4th bet is 3 points.

With 4 losing bets encountered the Fibonacci Staking Plan looks like this… 1, 1, 2, 3, The 5th stake is 2 + 3 = 5.

Before we go any further with this staking progression it’s probably a good time to examine the Law of Large Numbers.

The Law of Large Numbers states that the longer you continue to bet, the closer the success ration will become to your predicted betting odds, so if you bet 2/1 shots, over a long period you will get very close to 33% winners but the actual number of successes will become increasingly wilder.

To see the Law of Large Numbers in action I conducted an experiment using the RAND function in an excel spreadsheet, I used a 33% success rate where 0 to 33 was counted as a winner and anything above 33 were losers.

I used 3 blocks of 40 trials, the first set produced these results….

Winners 7 Losers 33 Strike Rate 17.5% Longest Winning Run 2 Longest Losing Run 6

Strike Rate well down on expectation but the winners were evenly spread.

Adding the next block of 40 the results were…

Winners 20 Losers 60 Strike Rate 25% Longest Winning Run 3 Longest Losing Run 7 After 80 trials there has been some correction in the strike rate, but note the successes of winners and losers, both have crept up slightly.

Adding the next block of 40 trials the results were as follows…

Winners 36 Losers 84 Strike Rate 30% Longest Winning Run 3 Longest Losing Run 12

As predicted the strike rate continued to edge toward 33% and although the winning run stayed on 3, the losing run went up to 12.

It seems the Law of Large numbers is alive and kicking!

So what does this mean for the Fibonacci Staking Plan?

If we start with a 500 point bank with a first stake of 1 point, how will the betting system cope with a losing run of 12?

Bet 1 |
Bet 2 |
Bet 3 |
Bet 4 |
Bet 5 |
Bet 6 |
Bet 7 |
Bet 8 |
Bet 9 |
Bet 10 |
Bet 11 |
Bet 12 |
Bet 13 |

1 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
5 |
8 |
13 |
21 |
34 |
55 |
89 |
144 |

After 12 losers 376 points have been lost, Bet 13 requires a stake of 233 points but only 124 points remain in the Bank, you could add funds to cover the next bet or 2 but you would be a couple of results away from doing another 500 in.

Now backing to level stakes and having a 500 point Bank and again using 1 point we see that results have been disappointing with a loss of 48 points but we still have 90% of our Bank intact!

Clearly level stakes are by far the best considering the amount of pressure there would be trying to find the next winner with money rapidly running out, a good sized bank and sensible staking leaves the punter free to pick the right sort of value selection.

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