Getting to the root of Betting System Truths will reveal as much about yourself as well as that of the betting game.
Warren Weaver wrote a book entitled “LADY LUCK the theory of probability” and in a section entitled “probability and gambling” he sited a work by Levinson “The Science of Chance” where a simple coin tossing experiment was matched up with an old staking plan the “Martingale doubling up system” it seems that Maths was the strong point in the book and Chance without any call to reason was given free rein.
To Weaver and Levinson it seems that gambling (at least in this example) is seen from an angle of cold chance, the tossing of a coin, the spin of a wheel, the throw of the dice.
But even so there are a couple of Betting System truths within the cold logic and probabilities of the experiments and mathematical equations, if we substitute rigid and simple rules in place of “chance” we have the same locked in approach where thought is driven out of the whole betting experience and we give our selves over to a set of rules. So what are the Betting system Truths?
Truth number 1 is, if you give yourself over to a set of rules, the rules have control over you.
An excellent booklet entitled Know Your Bets written by David Bennet has this to say on the Psychology of Betting, “the few individuals who manage, in the long term to take out of betting more than they put into it are drawn from a different group. Those who have struggled with their emotions and have achieved a degree of self-regulation” The self control of a well adjusted investor.
A character that caused quite a stir in the late 70’s to well into the 80’s was a Dutchman named Van Der Wheil, debate raged as to this chaps very existence because no bets were ever given in advance and no one apart from Tony Peach (editor of the sports Forum from the then entitled Sporting Chronicle Handicap Book) had any communication with him, at least not to my knowledge, but a statement that negates Truth number 1 given by Van Der Wheil time and again was “Temperament”, if you have management of yourself, why hand over control to anything else?
Betting System Truths second rule is buried in the title “Martingale”, it hides something that many will not readily come face to face with, the doubling up nature of this “system” hides behind a con, a con that many have profited from over the decades, peddlers have renamed and re-branded this staking arrangement because it feeds a basic part of peoples nature, Fear.
Fear of loss, we are taught from an early age that losing is bad, there is no second best, we must be winners, on top, better than the next person, all this early teaching makes us susceptible to rule number 2.
Truth number 2 is, if you fear loss you will almost certainly lose.
We cannot win all of the time, it’s not possible, and we can take a loss in the short term because we are thinking profit long term.
There are so many ways we can test our methods today using powerful spreadsheets plus accessing material outside the gambling world that empowers and enables us to break the pattern of negativity.
Problems become situations, probabilities are converted into opportunities, viewed in its rightful place, fear is a built in fail safe where action is required as a matter of course a matter of survival. Psychological fear is an illusion.
At the root of many systems is the psychological pull of taking away responsibility which is allied to Truth 1, handing over control, Frank Dick O.B.E wrote an excellent book “Winning- Motivation for Business, Sport and Life” on page 24 of his book he had this to say about winning “In this respect what really separates the achievers from the ‘almost’ people – the mountain people from the valley people – is mostly what goes on behind the eyes. It is a state of mind, a philosophy if you like, but a simple one. In general, achievers need only three qualities – what I call winners’ life skills – to create their emotional climate. 1 You must want to win, 2 You must believe you can win 3 You must persist until you win.
We are not talking winning in monetary terms here, money is a by-product of successful thinking.
Betting System Truths third rule is, if you play to a systems strength, you will open up a precious commodity – Time.
On the day I’m writing this there are 4 race meetings comprising 29 races, within 10 minutes, using a simple rule only 12 races are left from which I can apply further filters, another few minutes and I can narrow the days races down to 2 or 3 using only a daily paper.
Van Der Wheil gave a simple formula, Consistent form + Ability + Capability + Probability + Hard work = Winners.
Using basic filters based on common sense, experience and logic, there is now the time necessary to put the Hard Work in and see if there is a winner in the race.
System Betting at its best should be based on basic rules that reflect your style of punting, methodically guiding you to where your strengths lay, you put the based filters in place therefore you are the overseer.
If you pay for a computer program for horse racing, you will know the information that you put into the program but if you don’t know how the program uses that information, the impact values that make up a rating for the runners and therefore the recommended bets, Betting System Truths rule 1 comes into force, you hand over power. Its either that or the program has become a sometimes quite expensive filter.
“Persistence, determination, Staying the course – this is what it finally takes to win. It is also this that has made me convinced that real winners win even when they lose.” Frank Dick - Winning.